Ruxolitinib Forecast
Forecast Summary
HRV (RMSSD) Forecast:
• Current 7-day mean: 16.9 ms (slope: +0.01 ms/week, R²=0.000)
• Best model: exponential
• ESC Threshold (15 ms): Already met
• HSCT Range Low (25 ms): 2026-04-25 (50-95% CI: 2026-04-28 to 2026-10-27)
• Population 25th pct (36 ms): None (50-95% CI: 2027-03-03 to 2027-03-11)
Heart Rate Forecast:
• Current 7-day mean lowest HR: 63.6 bpm (slope: -0.30 bpm/week)
• Normal (<70 bpm): Already met
• Good (<65 bpm): Already met
• Excellent (<60 bpm): 2026-07-28
HRV & HR Trajectories with Forecast
Milestone Timeline
Model Comparison: Linear vs Exponential (HRV)
Three-Phase Recovery Context
Methodology & Caveats
Data: 215 post-ruxolitinib HRV observations, 215 post-ruxolitinib HR observations from Oura Ring Gen 4 (consumer wearable, not clinical-grade).
Linear model: OLS regression on day number since treatment start (2026-03-16). Bootstrap: 1000 resamples for confidence intervals.
Exponential model: y = a · (1 - e-t/τ) + baseline, fit via scipy.optimize.curve_fit with bounded parameters. Model selection by AIC (lower = better).
Three scenarios: Optimistic (75th pct slope), Expected (50th pct), Conservative (25th pct).
Limitations (small N): With only ~215 data points, forecasts carry wide confidence intervals and may shift substantially as more data accumulates. Physiological recovery is non-linear and depends on factors not captured in wearable data (infection status, medication changes, immune reconstitution). These projections are exploratory, not clinical recommendations.