Patient 2 Changepoint Investigation
Executive Summary
Analysis of 14 changepoints discovered by the 4-method consensus algorithm across 5 years of Oura Ring data. P2's data spans from early 2021 with significant gaps totaling approximately 1301 days of missing data across 9 gap periods.
The highest-consensus changepoint (C=9 on 2022-01-23) falls during P2's Australia stay (Dec 2021 - May 2022), suggesting genuine physiological adaptation to the timezone shift and environment change.
Of the 14 changepoints: 2 validated against known events, 6 classified as data artifacts (within 3 days of gap boundary), 3 genuine metric shifts, and 3 requiring follow-up with Patient 2.
5-Year Biometric Timeline with Changepoints
Vertical lines mark changepoints (colored by validation status). Gray bands indicate data gap periods. Red lines mark known life events. Labels show consensus score (C=N).
Top 6 Changepoints: Before vs. After
Comparison of key metrics in the 14-day window before and after each high-consensus changepoint. Grouped by HRV, Heart Rate, and Sleep Efficiency.
Australia Trip Deep Dive (Dec 2021 - Feb 2022)
Patient 2 arrived in Australia on Dec 18, 2021. Data is available for 60 days (2021-12-18 to 2022-02-18). The red shaded zone marks the first 7 days (jet lag recovery window). The amber line marks the C=9 changepoint on Jan 23, 2022.
Gap Proximity Analysis
Distance (in days) from each changepoint to the nearest data gap boundary. Changepoints within 3 days of a gap are classified as potential artifacts. Color indicates validation status.
Changepoint Validation Summary
All 14 changepoints ranked by consensus score with classification, dominant metric shift, and data availability.
| Date | Consensus | Validation | Type | Gap Dist. | Top Metric | Shift | Data (B/A) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-01-23 | 9 | VALIDATED | Travel/timezone | 27d | Active Calories | +27% | 14d / 15d |
| 2021-05-31 | 8 | GENUINE | Recovery milestone | 264d | Daily Steps | -47% | 14d / 15d |
| 2021-10-29 | 8 | GENUINE | Lifestyle shift | 113d | Total Sleep | +16% | 14d / 15d |
| 2022-05-06 | 8 | VALIDATED | Travel/timezone | 2d | Active Calories | -97% | 4d / 3d |
| 2023-07-06 | 8 | INVESTIGATE | Lifestyle shift | 63d | Avg Heart Rate | +3% | 14d / 13d |
| 2023-12-30 | 8 | INVESTIGATE | Lifestyle shift | 17d | Active Calories | +15% | 13d / 15d |
| 2022-08-08 | 7 | ARTIFACT | Data artifact | 0d | Active Calories | -38% | 2d / 1d |
| 2024-06-03 | 6 | ARTIFACT | Data artifact | 1d | Active Calories | +125% | 2d / 3d |
| 2025-02-03 | 6 | INVESTIGATE | Recovery milestone | 4d | Daily Steps | -46% | 5d / 8d |
| 2024-01-22 | 5 | ARTIFACT | Data artifact | 3d | Daily Steps | -18% | 11d / 7d |
| 2025-02-11 | 5 | ARTIFACT | Data artifact | 0d | Active Calories | -90% | 12d / 1d |
| 2025-03-25 | 5 | ARTIFACT | Data artifact | 0d | HRV (RMSSD) | +37% | 1d / 3d |
| 2021-02-20 | 2 | GENUINE | Lifestyle shift | 364d | Active Calories | +60180% | 3d / 15d |
| 2025-12-02 | 2 | ARTIFACT | Data artifact | 1d | Active Calories | -42% | 2d / 5d |
Long-Term Trajectory Segmentation
P2's biometric data split into wearing segments between gap periods. Shows baseline shifts across years.
| Start | End | Days | HRV (ms) | HR (bpm) | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-17 | 2022-02-18 | 363 | 52.6 +/- 10.4 | 63.0 +/- 4.3 | 83% |
| 2023-04-30 | 2023-09-06 | 128 | 47.6 +/- 7.4 | 60.9 +/- 3.7 | 83% |
| 2023-12-14 | 2024-01-24 | 38 | 51.9 +/- 6.1 | 59.8 +/- 2.8 | 80% |
| 2025-01-31 | 2025-02-10 | 10 | 48.6 +/- 6.7 | 58.2 +/- 3.2 | 79% |
| 2026-03-26 | 2026-04-05 | 11 | 42.1 +/- 4.0 | 59.0 +/- 2.1 | 85% |
Questions for Patient 2
The following changepoints could not be explained by data gaps or known events. Answers from Patient 2 would help validate the detection system.
- Around 2023-07-06: Your Avg Heart Rate increased by 3%. Did anything notable happen around this date? (illness, travel, lifestyle change, medication, stress event?)
- Around 2023-12-30: Your Active Calories increased by 15%. Did anything notable happen around this date? (illness, travel, lifestyle change, medication, stress event?)
- Around 2025-02-03: Your Daily Steps decreased by 46%. Did anything notable happen around this date? (illness, travel, lifestyle change, medication, stress event?)